Obviously, I'm excited about the Angels again. Albert Pujols is a fantastic player, and his constipated batting stance has generated prodigious offense throughout his time in the league. There is little debate about his current status as an elite first baseman.
I've long railed against long term contracts for athletes. It doesn't make sense, financially or otherwise, to devote a large proportion of a limited resource to a single entity. Baseball, in particular, deemphasizes individuals and thus limits the value one can reasonably obtain from a single player. A quick trip to Fangraphs illustrates the obvious disparity between value and salary for most players under expensive, long term contracts.
Unfortunately, I can only think of a single modern case where an expensive, stupid contract has succeeded in hamstringing a franchise, and that case is Alex Rodriguez with Texas. And I don't think it's likely to happen again.
Pujols will be paid 25 million dollars a year for a decade. The last year of his contract, he'll be 42 and undoubtedly a mediocre, below replacement-level player. He'll still be responsible for 25 million dollars on the Angels payroll. I just don't think it matters.
The 2010 average salary for MLB players was, heavily rounded, $3.5 million. Inflation has been increasing by roughly 3% annually since 1913, but let's say the economy remains relatively weak and we see 2% inflation through the life of the Pujols contract. Assuming no increase in average player salaries outside inflation (yeah right), the average salary will be $4.25 million and the $25 million owed to Pujols will only represent roughly 80% of the cost it bears today.
Is it a huge discount? No. But considering the additional benefits Pujols brings to the franchise in increased ticket, merchandise, and in-stadium sales, plus the newly negotiated TV contract, I don't really believe it would be reasonable for the Angels to limit their spending based on this single contract. It just doesn't happen.
Showing posts with label angels. Show all posts
Showing posts with label angels. Show all posts
Saturday, December 10, 2011
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Refreshing
"How much more money do you need? I've never played this game for money. I play it for love and for championships."Torii, per the LA Times:
"It's the way I was brought up. If $85 million is not enough to take care of my family and other generations of my family, then you're stupid."
"Loyalty is very important to me. The Angels drafted me. I want to stay here until I get a ring, or two, or three."
Right fielder Torii Hunter called Weaver's decision to ignore the lure of a richer payday "refreshing," saying the deal was smart for both sides.After Lackey's insanity, and the continuing descent of professional sports into unsustainable fiscal irresponsibility, Jered Weaver has proven himself to be a tremendous athlete, teammate, and Angel. Thank you.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Fine. Dan Haren is good.
I don't know why, but when Dan Haren emerged as a top-tier pitcher with Oakland, I couldn't figure out why. For some reason, I had watched him pitch a few times a year and was never particularly impressed. It just didn't seem reasonable that some dude who had a 4.12 ERA in the first season I saw him could possible be anywhere near the 3.07 ERA pitcher I was seeing a year later.
Regardless, he went on to the National League and had two extremely impressive years paired with Brandon Webb as the 1-2 punch of the Arizona Diamondbacks. When he was traded to the Angels during a season where bad luck had forced his traditional stats into a steep decline, I praised the move as one which fundamentally strengthened the team without creating any new deficiencies. It was, and remains, Regains' best move as general manager.
Tonight, he pitched a 2-hit shutout, winning 1-0 over Justin Verlander. Verlander, competing for the AL Cy Young with Jered Weaver this season, was superb, but not good enough to earn the win, allowing a single run to the Angels on an Erick Aybar double. A good call by third base coach Dino Ebel sent Kendrick home when Detroit outfielder Magglio Ordonez sent the ball in to second base rather than home. With Haren allowing only 2 hits while striking out 9, a single run was all the Halos needed.
The Angels have, over the last few series, managed to put together a respectable record that has them, somehow, tied for first place in the division. Baseball's great curse, the neverending season, has already begun to warp my perceptions of the team. With the best 1-2 starters in the league and a thoroughly respectable 3-5, the Angels are unlikely to lose many games on account of their starting pitching. Meager offense notwithstanding, this Angels team is no fundamentally different than the 2009 division title club. Perhaps they'll make the playoffs after all.
Regardless, he went on to the National League and had two extremely impressive years paired with Brandon Webb as the 1-2 punch of the Arizona Diamondbacks. When he was traded to the Angels during a season where bad luck had forced his traditional stats into a steep decline, I praised the move as one which fundamentally strengthened the team without creating any new deficiencies. It was, and remains, Regains' best move as general manager.
Tonight, he pitched a 2-hit shutout, winning 1-0 over Justin Verlander. Verlander, competing for the AL Cy Young with Jered Weaver this season, was superb, but not good enough to earn the win, allowing a single run to the Angels on an Erick Aybar double. A good call by third base coach Dino Ebel sent Kendrick home when Detroit outfielder Magglio Ordonez sent the ball in to second base rather than home. With Haren allowing only 2 hits while striking out 9, a single run was all the Halos needed.
The Angels have, over the last few series, managed to put together a respectable record that has them, somehow, tied for first place in the division. Baseball's great curse, the neverending season, has already begun to warp my perceptions of the team. With the best 1-2 starters in the league and a thoroughly respectable 3-5, the Angels are unlikely to lose many games on account of their starting pitching. Meager offense notwithstanding, this Angels team is no fundamentally different than the 2009 division title club. Perhaps they'll make the playoffs after all.
Thursday, June 2, 2011
I haven't written much about the Angels recently. I'm still watching hockey, and adjusting to the pace of baseball always takes a couple weeks. With the first game of the Stanley Cup Finals having ended moments ago, I suspect the Angels will begin to play a larger role in my life.
I will note, however, that the initial optimism I felt while the Angels sat atop a weak AL West has faded. The team suffers from the same problems which have prematurely ended their seasons for the last 3 years, and it's frustrating to watch.
Reagins needs to be fired, the team needs to dump salary for prospects, and the fans need to put up with 2 seasons of bad play to return to the top of the division.
I will note, however, that the initial optimism I felt while the Angels sat atop a weak AL West has faded. The team suffers from the same problems which have prematurely ended their seasons for the last 3 years, and it's frustrating to watch.
Reagins needs to be fired, the team needs to dump salary for prospects, and the fans need to put up with 2 seasons of bad play to return to the top of the division.
Monday, April 4, 2011
Ill will in three easy games
Last season was a train wreck by Angels standards. The offseason threw gas onto the fire. But as the months passed, I began to look forward to baseball once again. Surely, the many issues which plagued the 2010 Angels would be muted by regression to the mean. A bullpen once renowned for greatness would rebound from a depressing year, a sputtering offense would regain its best hitter, and an admittedly terrible offseason signing would still improve the team with better-than-Abreu defense. Birds would sing, the Rangers would flounder, and I'd again have a reason to watch baseball in the fall.
Opening day was a pleasant affair. The odor of failure had already begun to leak from the bullpen, but, masked by some good defense and a home run by Jeff Mathis, it was easily ignored as the fetid scent of yesteryear. But that which is ignored so easily during a win is acutely inhaled in a loss. The essential failures of 2010, notably a bullpen with a disturbing propensity to take on earned runs from offenses with questionable skill, continue today. Fernando Rodney, another example of a signing inspired by an Angels management structure that lacks any insight into valuable, realistic player evaluation, has successfully provided below replacement-level production for the mere sum of 5.5 million dollars per year. Meanwhile, the only capable arm in the bullpen belongs to Jordan Walden who, despite showing flashes of brilliance, is still young and coming off a major surgery which should force Scioscia to limit his innings count.
The bullpen failures are perplexing because they seem unique to the Angels. Nearly every other team routinely calls up AAA relievers and earns league-average production for the pittance of an entry-level MLB contract. LA, on the other hand, signs disproved statistics (saves, holds, ERA) to multiyear, multimillion contracts and exclaims "this is our year!" while quietly booking time at Augusta for the first week of October. Someone, be it Arte Moreno or Bill Stoneman or another "advisor to baseball operations" must recognize the incessant failure of Tony Reagins and suggest an alternative. Or perhaps not.
Meanwhile, the starting rotation which looked so promising a week ago is already showing some very obvious defects. Scott Kazmir, whose signing I resolutely defended, is undoubtedly weeks away from retirement. His new found inability to throw 95+ could be overlooked if he learned to manage the strike zone, but his poor command leaves him without a single worthwhile pitch. Some pitchers manage the transition from power pitcher to finesse junkballer, but Kazmir has not, and will not, and thus must not occupy a space on the Angels roster.
Joel Piniero continues his time on the disabled list with a sore shoulder. When this malady inevitably turns to a season-ending surgery, the best top-4 in the majors turns into a mediocre top-3 with a still-tepid offense.
The Rangers managed to sweep the Red Sox, again allowing Boston to trample my wishes and desires, this time several months earlier than usual. The Angels, already in last place and 2.5 games back of Texas, will need to play better baseball against much better teams than the Royals if they wish to avoid a second straight year of fall golf and offseason injuries.
Opening day was a pleasant affair. The odor of failure had already begun to leak from the bullpen, but, masked by some good defense and a home run by Jeff Mathis, it was easily ignored as the fetid scent of yesteryear. But that which is ignored so easily during a win is acutely inhaled in a loss. The essential failures of 2010, notably a bullpen with a disturbing propensity to take on earned runs from offenses with questionable skill, continue today. Fernando Rodney, another example of a signing inspired by an Angels management structure that lacks any insight into valuable, realistic player evaluation, has successfully provided below replacement-level production for the mere sum of 5.5 million dollars per year. Meanwhile, the only capable arm in the bullpen belongs to Jordan Walden who, despite showing flashes of brilliance, is still young and coming off a major surgery which should force Scioscia to limit his innings count.
The bullpen failures are perplexing because they seem unique to the Angels. Nearly every other team routinely calls up AAA relievers and earns league-average production for the pittance of an entry-level MLB contract. LA, on the other hand, signs disproved statistics (saves, holds, ERA) to multiyear, multimillion contracts and exclaims "this is our year!" while quietly booking time at Augusta for the first week of October. Someone, be it Arte Moreno or Bill Stoneman or another "advisor to baseball operations" must recognize the incessant failure of Tony Reagins and suggest an alternative. Or perhaps not.
Meanwhile, the starting rotation which looked so promising a week ago is already showing some very obvious defects. Scott Kazmir, whose signing I resolutely defended, is undoubtedly weeks away from retirement. His new found inability to throw 95+ could be overlooked if he learned to manage the strike zone, but his poor command leaves him without a single worthwhile pitch. Some pitchers manage the transition from power pitcher to finesse junkballer, but Kazmir has not, and will not, and thus must not occupy a space on the Angels roster.
Joel Piniero continues his time on the disabled list with a sore shoulder. When this malady inevitably turns to a season-ending surgery, the best top-4 in the majors turns into a mediocre top-3 with a still-tepid offense.
The Rangers managed to sweep the Red Sox, again allowing Boston to trample my wishes and desires, this time several months earlier than usual. The Angels, already in last place and 2.5 games back of Texas, will need to play better baseball against much better teams than the Royals if they wish to avoid a second straight year of fall golf and offseason injuries.
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Baseball
Baseball is a funny thing.
In 2006, as I was beginning my ascent (descent?) to quasi-insanity and regularly watching Angels games with pixelated 320x240 Slingbox feeds, baseball was the thread that tied together my day. With the eastern time zone moving afternoon games to the evening and evening games well into the night, was able to watch most games without constant distraction from real obligations. Subsequent years of mechanical engineering courses, a new found need to sleep more than 5 hours a night, and waning interest in a 162 game schedule shifted me out of tune with the dynamic baseball landscape. While there were certainly moments of intense focus, my overall baseball awareness dropped in favor of other interests, inside the sports world and otherwise.
As the Giants lifted the Commissioner's Trophy in November, I found myself asking whether I was still, in earnest, a baseball fan. Certainly, I never expected to sustain the level of involvement I had while in college, but I only watched the first and last games of the Series, and only portions thereof, with the end of the regular season a blur of late-season call ups and boredom.
My musings seemed valid as I leaned heavily on the Kings for my competitive sports intake. With half the games and twice the pressure, hockey was an effective substitute for the relative parity and slog of major league baseball. When the Angels acquired Vernon Wells, simultaneously worsening and aging the team while increasing payroll, my interest reached an all-time low. If the front office couldn't even figure out player valuation, why should I care about the team? The Angels traded away their second-or third-best offensive player in Mike Napoli for millions of dollars of bad contract and a mediocre, possibly bad, former center fielder.
Yet, as the offseason progressed, I found myself oddly interested. Every day, I'd find myself checking the MLB sections of various websites, logging in to my usual baseball blogs, and contemplating the 2011 roster. Perhaps the Angels would improve despite their miserable offseason. Maybe Vernon Wells might play to the level of his contract. Mike Scioscia might begin to consider a more flexible bullpen roation. Texas wasn't actually good last year, so why should they be good this year?
Baseball. It's coming back. Hope springs eternal.
In 2006, as I was beginning my ascent (descent?) to quasi-insanity and regularly watching Angels games with pixelated 320x240 Slingbox feeds, baseball was the thread that tied together my day. With the eastern time zone moving afternoon games to the evening and evening games well into the night, was able to watch most games without constant distraction from real obligations. Subsequent years of mechanical engineering courses, a new found need to sleep more than 5 hours a night, and waning interest in a 162 game schedule shifted me out of tune with the dynamic baseball landscape. While there were certainly moments of intense focus, my overall baseball awareness dropped in favor of other interests, inside the sports world and otherwise.
As the Giants lifted the Commissioner's Trophy in November, I found myself asking whether I was still, in earnest, a baseball fan. Certainly, I never expected to sustain the level of involvement I had while in college, but I only watched the first and last games of the Series, and only portions thereof, with the end of the regular season a blur of late-season call ups and boredom.
My musings seemed valid as I leaned heavily on the Kings for my competitive sports intake. With half the games and twice the pressure, hockey was an effective substitute for the relative parity and slog of major league baseball. When the Angels acquired Vernon Wells, simultaneously worsening and aging the team while increasing payroll, my interest reached an all-time low. If the front office couldn't even figure out player valuation, why should I care about the team? The Angels traded away their second-or third-best offensive player in Mike Napoli for millions of dollars of bad contract and a mediocre, possibly bad, former center fielder.
Yet, as the offseason progressed, I found myself oddly interested. Every day, I'd find myself checking the MLB sections of various websites, logging in to my usual baseball blogs, and contemplating the 2011 roster. Perhaps the Angels would improve despite their miserable offseason. Maybe Vernon Wells might play to the level of his contract. Mike Scioscia might begin to consider a more flexible bullpen roation. Texas wasn't actually good last year, so why should they be good this year?
Baseball. It's coming back. Hope springs eternal.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Apples, meet oranges
I was browsing through my list of sports-related websites this morning during an unbelievably slow day at work when I found this article over at ESPN. I decided I'd dust off the ol' sports blog to make a few points.
First of all, I don't view the UConn women's basketball team's streak of 89 wins as a particularly good thing for women's basketball. When you look at the scores of their games and the talent they have on their roster, it makes a very obvious point about the lack of competition in the sport. The best women in the world play for UConn. Their bench players would start anywhere else, as would the ladies they leave in the stands for games. Much like the oft-publicized brain drain in the IT world, all the top talent flows to UConn and then into the WNBA. They have no competition.
And we're lauding this as a good thing?
If anything, the winning streak should prove that the sport is nonviable. When a single team dominates opponents for this long in professional sports, leagues start implementing salary caps and revenue sharing. I have a hard time imagining anything more boring than attending a UConn game. The team is up 45-9 at halftime and wins by over 40 points. Where's the competition? Where's the suspense, the drama, the interest? How can anyone possibly claim that UConn is good for women's basketball?
Then, of course, we have the inevitable comparisons between the men's and women's game. Make no mistake: most men's high school teams would crush UConn. That's not a knock on their talent, but the sport they play is fundamentally different from men's basketball. The ball is smaller, the three-point line is closer, the players are often well below 6 feet tall, and the talent pool is minuscule. While comparing the UConn team to a men's team is a thought-provoking exercise, it diminishes the achievements of both sexes while damaging women's athletics as a whole. Much like a great college football team draws interest in a matchup with a bad NFL team, there is no question that the Bengals would maul USC while playing practice squad players.
All of this rambling boils down to my desire to stop hearing UConn coach Geno Auriemma stop complaining about how his team's accomplishments are incomparable while simultaneously making comparisons to the UCLA teams of the 1980's. It is not the same sport.
Angels
Interestingly enough, I do have a couple comments about the Angels despite an overly quiet offeseason:
First of all, I don't view the UConn women's basketball team's streak of 89 wins as a particularly good thing for women's basketball. When you look at the scores of their games and the talent they have on their roster, it makes a very obvious point about the lack of competition in the sport. The best women in the world play for UConn. Their bench players would start anywhere else, as would the ladies they leave in the stands for games. Much like the oft-publicized brain drain in the IT world, all the top talent flows to UConn and then into the WNBA. They have no competition.
And we're lauding this as a good thing?
If anything, the winning streak should prove that the sport is nonviable. When a single team dominates opponents for this long in professional sports, leagues start implementing salary caps and revenue sharing. I have a hard time imagining anything more boring than attending a UConn game. The team is up 45-9 at halftime and wins by over 40 points. Where's the competition? Where's the suspense, the drama, the interest? How can anyone possibly claim that UConn is good for women's basketball?
Then, of course, we have the inevitable comparisons between the men's and women's game. Make no mistake: most men's high school teams would crush UConn. That's not a knock on their talent, but the sport they play is fundamentally different from men's basketball. The ball is smaller, the three-point line is closer, the players are often well below 6 feet tall, and the talent pool is minuscule. While comparing the UConn team to a men's team is a thought-provoking exercise, it diminishes the achievements of both sexes while damaging women's athletics as a whole. Much like a great college football team draws interest in a matchup with a bad NFL team, there is no question that the Bengals would maul USC while playing practice squad players.
All of this rambling boils down to my desire to stop hearing UConn coach Geno Auriemma stop complaining about how his team's accomplishments are incomparable while simultaneously making comparisons to the UCLA teams of the 1980's. It is not the same sport.
Angels
Interestingly enough, I do have a couple comments about the Angels despite an overly quiet offeseason:
- From HH, this article shows that fans of the Phillies are willing to spend more to put a winning team on the field. While I agree in principle, I think the Angels have struck a good balance. If they can consistently make the
crapshootplayoffs while keeping ticket prices low, I'd prefer that to turning into the Yankees. The major problem with sports, and perhaps life, is that a win never feels as good as a loss feels bad. Drawing that line is up to Arte Moreno, but he keeps spouting off about wanting a championship. Maybe he needs to spend some more money. Or, better yet, hire a GM who will spend the money he has wisely. - Adrian Beltre has no other options. Don't do anything stupid.
Friday, December 10, 2010
"Big market" team
As Boston signs yet another multimillion dollar contract, the Angels lose out on a premier free agent once again.
The repeated failures to acquire top free agents despite constant promises to improve the team by all means possible are just as demoralizing as losses on the field. You expect the Nationals to have to overpay talent to get players to Washington - you don't expect the same from the Angels. Figuring out why players don't want to play in Anaheim or learning to overpay for elite talent* must be top priorities for the Angels front office.
I'm also convinced that MLB needs a salary cap, but that's a discussion for another day.
*Elite talent is not the same as good talent. Overpaying good (Hunter) and mediocre (Matthews Jr.) talent is not smart business practice, but overpaying for Teixeira or Alex Rodriguez or Cliff Lee might be. I don't think Crawford is elite, and I think overpaying for Crawford would've been a mistake. But there is a time and place for an above-market contract.
The repeated failures to acquire top free agents despite constant promises to improve the team by all means possible are just as demoralizing as losses on the field. You expect the Nationals to have to overpay talent to get players to Washington - you don't expect the same from the Angels. Figuring out why players don't want to play in Anaheim or learning to overpay for elite talent* must be top priorities for the Angels front office.
I'm also convinced that MLB needs a salary cap, but that's a discussion for another day.
*Elite talent is not the same as good talent. Overpaying good (Hunter) and mediocre (Matthews Jr.) talent is not smart business practice, but overpaying for Teixeira or Alex Rodriguez or Cliff Lee might be. I don't think Crawford is elite, and I think overpaying for Crawford would've been a mistake. But there is a time and place for an above-market contract.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Season Post-Mortem: Your Los Angeles Angels
There are many things I miss about college, but two effects have become particularly clear. The first is my inability to find anything at a real grocery store after five years of Wollaston's, Your On-Campus Grocer, and the second is my surprising lack of motivation to write when I find myself sans-homework.
The Angels season ended in earnest only 10 days ago, but the team had been out of contention for seemingly the entire season. An embarrassing season-long performance from the bullpen, a disturbingly bad offense, aging outfield defense, and frustrating injuries sealed the Angels' first sub-.500 season since 2003. Considering my first season as a fan commenced in the waning days of 2006, this was unknown territory for me, although par for the franchise.
From the first game of the season, a win over Texas, the problems were already evident. I wrote, "The bullpen was pretty poor[...]Rodney managed to throw more than twice as many balls as strikes." From that game forward, the Angels would struggle to get to and stay above .500, allowing a weak Texas team to emerge from the West and subsequently punch their ticket to the ALCS.
The failure of the team is directly attributable to the failure of the front office. I have whined ad nauseam about the constant misjudgments and stupid ideas put forth by the front office, and many of them seemed to coalesce into a terrible season this year.
The Angels season ended in earnest only 10 days ago, but the team had been out of contention for seemingly the entire season. An embarrassing season-long performance from the bullpen, a disturbingly bad offense, aging outfield defense, and frustrating injuries sealed the Angels' first sub-.500 season since 2003. Considering my first season as a fan commenced in the waning days of 2006, this was unknown territory for me, although par for the franchise.
From the first game of the season, a win over Texas, the problems were already evident. I wrote, "The bullpen was pretty poor[...]Rodney managed to throw more than twice as many balls as strikes." From that game forward, the Angels would struggle to get to and stay above .500, allowing a weak Texas team to emerge from the West and subsequently punch their ticket to the ALCS.
The failure of the team is directly attributable to the failure of the front office. I have whined ad nauseam about the constant misjudgments and stupid ideas put forth by the front office, and many of them seemed to coalesce into a terrible season this year.
- The completely screwed up development of Brandon Wood. Last season, Wood had a fantastic spring training and looked primed to make the team. He needed to make the team. He was sent down and has failed to live up to even the most pessimistic expectations. I think it's important to note that he had a terrible spring training this year.
- The completely screwed up approach to bullpen construction. Brian Fuentes was replaced as Colorado's closer when he started blowing saves. The Angels looked at his save totals and signed him to a bloated contract. Fernando Rodney was nearly replaced as Detroit's closer when he started blowing saves. The Angels looked at his save totals and signed him to a bloated contract. Darren Oliver had a great couple seasons and showed no signs of regression. The Angels released him. Bullpen construction needs to be kept simple: cheap veterans derived from and combined with cheap young farm players. Importing bullpen talent at above-market rates is a recipe for disaster.
- The love affair with old outfielders. The Torii Hunter signing was mediocre. He's been great thus far, and his contributions in the clubhouse and the community ensure he's still worth the money when he's hitting .250. But signing Abreu was foolish, signing Rivera was and Matsui doubly. That the Angels looked at a player who had needed several knee surgeries in the previous season, had a single good postseason series after a season of mediocrity, and was going to be 36, and thought "Hey, we should sign this guy!" is a great microcosm of the small-mindedness in the Angels front office.
- The emergence of rookies Bourjos, Kohn, and Walden, and the introduction of Conger and Trumbo. Bourjos, in particular, has been an exciting player to watch, and if he's able to fully adjust to major league hitting in the next 300 at-bats or so, he'll be a mainstay in center field for the foreseeable future.
- The trade for Dan Haren and the precision of Jered Weaver. This year's starting pitching, outside Scott Kazmir, is the best rotation in baseball. Replacing Kazmir with a league average starter gives the Angels the best 1-5 in either league.
- Kendry Morales is coming back.
Friday, August 6, 2010
Jered Weaver's transformation
Back in the dark days of 2006, when the Angels had both Weaver brothers on the team, I noticed two things from the younger brother: brilliance and passion. But behind the passion lurked the same loathing that derailed Jeff's career for several years, with dirt-kicking, glove-yelling, and generally bad behavior on the mound in troublesome situations. It concerned me.
It continued to bother me throughout the 2007, 2008, and 2009 seasons. Despite pitching very well, Jered would have moments where you could see he was losing it, and it turned a "runners on first and third" situation into a "3 runs in, no men on" situation more than once. It reeked of Jeff Weaver. And it was reminiscent of John Lackey, who routinely stared down infielders after errors, or audibly cursed loud enough to require a bleep on the FSN cameras. Lackey and Jeff both loved to throw other players under the bus, and Jered was acquiring this undesirable trait.
Then Lackey left, his brother already gone for three seasons, and Jered found himself as the undisputed king of a deep-but-not-exceptional pitching staff, a staff of #3's. Something changed. The passion turned from unproductive yelling to fiery pitching, demanding another inning as he did tonight, nipping the corner with a fastball after a bad call, congratulating teammates when making tough plays, and shaking it off when they make bad ones. Weaver knows he's become a world class pitcher, and he knows that he can always get a strikeout when he absolutely needs one.
He's become a real pleasure to watch, and another reason to keep watching the Angels during this otherwise miserable season.
It continued to bother me throughout the 2007, 2008, and 2009 seasons. Despite pitching very well, Jered would have moments where you could see he was losing it, and it turned a "runners on first and third" situation into a "3 runs in, no men on" situation more than once. It reeked of Jeff Weaver. And it was reminiscent of John Lackey, who routinely stared down infielders after errors, or audibly cursed loud enough to require a bleep on the FSN cameras. Lackey and Jeff both loved to throw other players under the bus, and Jered was acquiring this undesirable trait.
Then Lackey left, his brother already gone for three seasons, and Jered found himself as the undisputed king of a deep-but-not-exceptional pitching staff, a staff of #3's. Something changed. The passion turned from unproductive yelling to fiery pitching, demanding another inning as he did tonight, nipping the corner with a fastball after a bad call, congratulating teammates when making tough plays, and shaking it off when they make bad ones. Weaver knows he's become a world class pitcher, and he knows that he can always get a strikeout when he absolutely needs one.
He's become a real pleasure to watch, and another reason to keep watching the Angels during this otherwise miserable season.
Friday, July 30, 2010
Well, duh
Yes, that is Dustin Brown of the Los Angeles Kings, "liking" ice hockey on Facebook.Of course, the real reason my readers (hah!) come here is to read about the Angels. And the Angels have managed to fail as pundits have predicted for the last five years, sitting 9 games back of the first place Texas Rangers. They have a pitching rotation of Weaver, Haren, Santana, Kazmir, and Somebody, with Piniero injured and Saunders traded for Haren. They have a lineup which does not feature a single batter hitting over .280. They have outfielders who can't catch, a designated hitter who can't hit, and a bullpen that can't pitch.
This, clearly, is suboptimal.
At the same time, I'm seeing a lot of positives from this subpar season. The Angels will, finally, be sellers at the deadline, allowing them to start recouping the talent they've lost at the deadline every year since 2003, their last truly uncompetitive season. They should be able to move Matsui, Abreu, Rivera, one of Kendrick/Izturis, and possibly a catcher. The sum return of those parts might be limited, but getting rid of an old outfield and making room for useful prospects (Bourjos) and soon to be worthwhile free agents (Carl Crawford). Trading Mike Napoli would be tremendously foolish, but with the way Scioscia refuses to use his best asset, he might be traded for something of value.
With those things considered, my Angels lineup for 2011 looks markedly better than the current lineup:
SS -Aybar
OF - Crawford
1B - Morales
C - Napoli
DH - anyone who can swing a bat that isn't old
OF - Hunter
3B - Callaspo
2B - Kendrick
OF - Bourjos
In addition to sucking less than the current players, the median roster age will be substantially lower. Bourjos can actually play outfield, and should play center with Hunter moving to left, although we all know that won't happen. There's tremendous speed in the top two and last three spots of the order, with the DH spot open for league average batting that any worthwhile farm system can produce easily.
The starting rotation:
Weaver
Haren
Santana
Piniero
Kazmir
Frankly, not bad, aside from Scott Kazmir.
The bullpen should, with any luck, lose Fuentes and Rodney to other teams. Replaced with league average arms, this is a definite upgrade. Thompson, Kohn, Rodriguez, most of these players will be better than Fuentes and Rodney while charging the league minimum for their services.
I said before the season that this looked like the last year for the Angels to contend in the immediate future. I did not foresee the Haren trade, and I did not foresee the opportunity for the Angels to trade age for potential the way they now can.
So, Angels, thanks for ending this season quickly. I prefer a clean break to something drawn out every time.
Monday, July 26, 2010
How Tony Reagins screwed up my next blog post
Here's the thing: Tony Reagins has been an awful GM.
I had this long essay about how he's done nothing but make the team worse through bad trades (Kazmir), bad management of talent (Oliver, O'Day), lateral moves (Callaspo, Bulger) and bad acquisitions (Matsui, Fuentes). And it's true, he's made a mess of an organization which, while slow and unexciting with Stoneman at the helm, nevertheless stockpiled talent and seemed poised to rule the weak AL West for the next couple decades.
When Reagins signed Torii Hunter to an enormous contract out of nowhere, I knew that there were going to be serious changes in the organization. What I did not forsee, however, were the myriad negative changes accompanying the small beneficial ones, ultimately leading for my to call for Reagins' firing as early as January this year. When Guerrero was let go in favor of another aging slugger, I was concerned. When Fernando Rodney, previously billed as "the worst closer in baseball" by Detroit fans signed a multiyear contract, I knew the Angels were in trouble.
Yesterday's trade of Saunders + minor leaguers to Arizona for Dan Haren might be the trade that keeps Regains his job. This is what the Kazmir trade was supposed to be: buy low on major league talent, sell high on minor league talent. As long as the PTBNL isn't Mike Trout, and it won't be, it'll be a lopsided trade in the Angels' favor for a great pitcher with a favorable contract that pays him less than he's worth. And it gets rid of Joe Saunders, who was a great man and a great Angel, but not a particularly good pitcher, and one who's performance this season illustrates his mediocrity.
For the record, I have no faith that the Angels will make the playoffs this season. A 7 game deficit with ~60 games remaining is a deep hole, especially when the Rangers are able to take 3 of 4 games. Texas and LA have 10 games remaining, but the Angels will now need to exceed the Rangers' pace through the nondivisional schedule as well.
But I'm feeling much more optimistic about next season than I was at the beginning of this one, so while I wait for Haren to start with the Angels, I'll give Reagins a reprieve. But only for a minute.
I had this long essay about how he's done nothing but make the team worse through bad trades (Kazmir), bad management of talent (Oliver, O'Day), lateral moves (Callaspo, Bulger) and bad acquisitions (Matsui, Fuentes). And it's true, he's made a mess of an organization which, while slow and unexciting with Stoneman at the helm, nevertheless stockpiled talent and seemed poised to rule the weak AL West for the next couple decades.
When Reagins signed Torii Hunter to an enormous contract out of nowhere, I knew that there were going to be serious changes in the organization. What I did not forsee, however, were the myriad negative changes accompanying the small beneficial ones, ultimately leading for my to call for Reagins' firing as early as January this year. When Guerrero was let go in favor of another aging slugger, I was concerned. When Fernando Rodney, previously billed as "the worst closer in baseball" by Detroit fans signed a multiyear contract, I knew the Angels were in trouble.
Yesterday's trade of Saunders + minor leaguers to Arizona for Dan Haren might be the trade that keeps Regains his job. This is what the Kazmir trade was supposed to be: buy low on major league talent, sell high on minor league talent. As long as the PTBNL isn't Mike Trout, and it won't be, it'll be a lopsided trade in the Angels' favor for a great pitcher with a favorable contract that pays him less than he's worth. And it gets rid of Joe Saunders, who was a great man and a great Angel, but not a particularly good pitcher, and one who's performance this season illustrates his mediocrity.
For the record, I have no faith that the Angels will make the playoffs this season. A 7 game deficit with ~60 games remaining is a deep hole, especially when the Rangers are able to take 3 of 4 games. Texas and LA have 10 games remaining, but the Angels will now need to exceed the Rangers' pace through the nondivisional schedule as well.
But I'm feeling much more optimistic about next season than I was at the beginning of this one, so while I wait for Haren to start with the Angels, I'll give Reagins a reprieve. But only for a minute.
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Beating the Yankees
As boredom truly sets in, I've been watching a reasonable amount of Angels baseball over the last few weeks. My frustrations with the team remain the same, but a thorough dismantling of the Yankees always brightens my spirits.
But I'm more curious as to what, exactly, has been going on with Scot Shields.
Scot "Only one T, Please" Shields was the eighth-inning rock in the bullpen during Francisco Rodriguez's run as Angels closer. He was never truly dominant, but had dominant stretches and was generally reliable enough to be trusted in close game situations even in back to back, or several consecutive, games. His two-seam fastball was listed, at one point, as the #1 swing and miss pitch in Major League Baseball. He led the league in holds. He pitched at least 77 innings (and a max of 148) in every season from 2003-2007.
Then something happened. That something was a rash of injuries, including a major surgery and trip to the disabled list in 2009 that ended his season. Since returning, and even before his departure, Shields has been...bad. Bad is the best word to describe his performance. Bad BB/9, bad IP totals, bad WAR, bad ERA, bad tRA, bad everything.
Tonight, Shields threw an inning, allowing a walk, a hit, and earning a pair of strikeouts. He looked much like the pitcher he was from '03-'06, seasons during which he posted impressive WAR's of 2.6, 2.4, 2.7, and 2.0 Looking at his successful seasons, we see a couple major differences in some peripheral stats that indicate Scot's true problems. With a career average BB/9 of 3.50, he has rates of 7.64 and 6.37 in the last two seasons. This season, his BABIP has climbed from a career average of .286 to .319, despite lowering his HR/9 to .61 from a career average of .67.
So, with those numbers in mind, what's Scottie's problem? Well, he's walking too many people and he's getting unlucky, with hits falling in at a higher than expected rate. This means, of course, that his walked batters are turning into runs courtesy of an unlucky hit rate. Where hits used to merely put a man on base, they're now driving in walked batters.
To be fair, Shields is turning 35 in two days, and some natural reduction in performance is expected with age. But with a change in mechanics, or preparation, or voodoo, or whatever it is that allows pitchers to regain control, there's nothing separating Shields from a fourth 2.0+ WAR season.
But I'm more curious as to what, exactly, has been going on with Scot Shields.
Scot "Only one T, Please" Shields was the eighth-inning rock in the bullpen during Francisco Rodriguez's run as Angels closer. He was never truly dominant, but had dominant stretches and was generally reliable enough to be trusted in close game situations even in back to back, or several consecutive, games. His two-seam fastball was listed, at one point, as the #1 swing and miss pitch in Major League Baseball. He led the league in holds. He pitched at least 77 innings (and a max of 148) in every season from 2003-2007.
Then something happened. That something was a rash of injuries, including a major surgery and trip to the disabled list in 2009 that ended his season. Since returning, and even before his departure, Shields has been...bad. Bad is the best word to describe his performance. Bad BB/9, bad IP totals, bad WAR, bad ERA, bad tRA, bad everything.
Tonight, Shields threw an inning, allowing a walk, a hit, and earning a pair of strikeouts. He looked much like the pitcher he was from '03-'06, seasons during which he posted impressive WAR's of 2.6, 2.4, 2.7, and 2.0 Looking at his successful seasons, we see a couple major differences in some peripheral stats that indicate Scot's true problems. With a career average BB/9 of 3.50, he has rates of 7.64 and 6.37 in the last two seasons. This season, his BABIP has climbed from a career average of .286 to .319, despite lowering his HR/9 to .61 from a career average of .67.
So, with those numbers in mind, what's Scottie's problem? Well, he's walking too many people and he's getting unlucky, with hits falling in at a higher than expected rate. This means, of course, that his walked batters are turning into runs courtesy of an unlucky hit rate. Where hits used to merely put a man on base, they're now driving in walked batters.
To be fair, Shields is turning 35 in two days, and some natural reduction in performance is expected with age. But with a change in mechanics, or preparation, or voodoo, or whatever it is that allows pitchers to regain control, there's nothing separating Shields from a fourth 2.0+ WAR season.
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Team with noodle bats still in contention
As I watch Hideki Matsui ground yet another ball for an easy out, I grow increasingly sad while Vlad cranks out home runs for Texas. And while the gap is likely to be 5.5 games tonight, with the Rangers holding three games in hand, I'm still relatively unconcerned. In a ridiculous bit of schedule-making insanity, the Angels and Rangers still have 14 games together.
Anything that's less than a 14 game lead, isn't.
Anything that's less than a 14 game lead, isn't.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Divisional Games
The In Play, No Outs philosophy on baseball is simple. Beat teams in your division two times out of three, and you'll make the playoffs. With the Angels opening a short series with the Rangers tomorrow, it is exceedingly important that they win at least two games to start narrowing the gap between themselves and division leaders Texas.
Texas has been playing Houston, Floria, and Pittsburgh, parlaying an easy schedule into a 16-2 record over their last 18 games. Despite an Angels team that has had a surprising string of solid play following the loss of Kendry Morales, the Rangers have turned a half game deficit to a 4.5 game lead in the West, and can lead by as many as 7.5 games if they sweep the series.
Ordinarily, a 7.5 game lead is borderline insurmountable over the remainder of the season, but the Angels have 14 games remaining with the Rangers, not including the upcoming three game series. With 17 games left to be played, the idiot schedule makers have made for an interesting, albeit compressed, race for the division crown.
Texas has been playing Houston, Floria, and Pittsburgh, parlaying an easy schedule into a 16-2 record over their last 18 games. Despite an Angels team that has had a surprising string of solid play following the loss of Kendry Morales, the Rangers have turned a half game deficit to a 4.5 game lead in the West, and can lead by as many as 7.5 games if they sweep the series.
Ordinarily, a 7.5 game lead is borderline insurmountable over the remainder of the season, but the Angels have 14 games remaining with the Rangers, not including the upcoming three game series. With 17 games left to be played, the idiot schedule makers have made for an interesting, albeit compressed, race for the division crown.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Only half-joking* idea for Angels bullpen
Okay, so the Angels have a bullpen that gives up a run an inning on a good night. The starters, on the other hand, have been pretty solid. So, instead of having one starter a night, try two! Each starter gets a 60 pitch limit, and the rotation expands to include Trevor Bell. So now we have a rotation of:
Weaver/Kazmir
Saunders/Santana
Piniero/Bell
This gives a nifty L/R split for days one and two, while accepting mediocre performance on the third day. This should, hopefully, limit the bullpen to less than an inning per game, while essentially replacing the standard 5 day rotation with bullpen sessions into a 3 day rotation with no bullpen sessions. The total amount of pitches thrown per pitcher per week shouldn't be much higher than it is now, with the added advantage of total bullpen pitches thrown per week falling to near zero.
Should starter 1 throw 7 innings on 60 pitches, or even 6 innings, well, that's great, because now he gets to be starter 2 on his next turn in the rotation. The goal, really, is to get at least 5 out of the first starter so the second can go 5 on his next turn, if he's economical.
*Yes, this is a joke, but I wonder if something like this has ever been tried during the regular season.
Weaver/Kazmir
Saunders/Santana
Piniero/Bell
This gives a nifty L/R split for days one and two, while accepting mediocre performance on the third day. This should, hopefully, limit the bullpen to less than an inning per game, while essentially replacing the standard 5 day rotation with bullpen sessions into a 3 day rotation with no bullpen sessions. The total amount of pitches thrown per pitcher per week shouldn't be much higher than it is now, with the added advantage of total bullpen pitches thrown per week falling to near zero.
Should starter 1 throw 7 innings on 60 pitches, or even 6 innings, well, that's great, because now he gets to be starter 2 on his next turn in the rotation. The goal, really, is to get at least 5 out of the first starter so the second can go 5 on his next turn, if he's economical.
*Yes, this is a joke, but I wonder if something like this has ever been tried during the regular season.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
How to improperly run a team with a huge payroll
The Angels, so far this season, have been underwhelming. And while much of the blame can be placed with the tepid offense, the bullpen has been shockingly unreliable. The bullpen, this year, is making these salaries:
Brian Fuentes: $9,000,000
Fernando Rodney: $5,500,000
Scot Shields: $5,350,000
Kevin Jepsen: $415,000
Jason Bulger: $418,000
Brian Stokes: $435,000
Trevor Bell: $400,000
Bobby Cassevah: $400,000
That's $21,918,000 committed to a bullpen which has been decidedly below league average this year. Fuentes and Shields, in particular, have combined for some of the worst relief appearances in recent memory, neither having a 2010 season where they should be getting paid for their services. Fuentes has been worth an astonishing NEGATIVE 1.9 million dollars thus far, and Shields should have paid the Angels 1.1 million dollars for his 11.1 innings this season. Two guys, combining for over 14 million dollars in salary, are providing less value than your typical AAA relief pitcher.
The real problem, though, is that there's no real options to fix the problem. You can't just throw away $14,000,000 because the players aren't (nor have they ever been) worth their salaries. And apparently, the farm system can't provide even semi-reliable arms, with Stokes showing off a -0.3 WAR this season, and Bell is sitting on a goose egg for his WAR, which, frankly, is better than most of his peers.
Again, I'm calling for front office leadership changes. Reagins has consistently shown an inability to adequately assess talent, and his problems are made worse by Scioscia's unwillingness to move around arms in his bullpen to suit their strengths. The Angels need to stop with oversized contracts to mediocre players and concentrate on utilizing trades and the farm system to acquire low-priced talent in the next two years. Otherwise, it's going to look a whole lot like the early '90's.
Brian Fuentes: $9,000,000
Fernando Rodney: $5,500,000
Scot Shields: $5,350,000
Kevin Jepsen: $415,000
Jason Bulger: $418,000
Brian Stokes: $435,000
Trevor Bell: $400,000
Bobby Cassevah: $400,000
That's $21,918,000 committed to a bullpen which has been decidedly below league average this year. Fuentes and Shields, in particular, have combined for some of the worst relief appearances in recent memory, neither having a 2010 season where they should be getting paid for their services. Fuentes has been worth an astonishing NEGATIVE 1.9 million dollars thus far, and Shields should have paid the Angels 1.1 million dollars for his 11.1 innings this season. Two guys, combining for over 14 million dollars in salary, are providing less value than your typical AAA relief pitcher.
The real problem, though, is that there's no real options to fix the problem. You can't just throw away $14,000,000 because the players aren't (nor have they ever been) worth their salaries. And apparently, the farm system can't provide even semi-reliable arms, with Stokes showing off a -0.3 WAR this season, and Bell is sitting on a goose egg for his WAR, which, frankly, is better than most of his peers.
Again, I'm calling for front office leadership changes. Reagins has consistently shown an inability to adequately assess talent, and his problems are made worse by Scioscia's unwillingness to move around arms in his bullpen to suit their strengths. The Angels need to stop with oversized contracts to mediocre players and concentrate on utilizing trades and the farm system to acquire low-priced talent in the next two years. Otherwise, it's going to look a whole lot like the early '90's.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Better options than Brian Fuentes:
1.) Fernando Rodney
2.) The Aflac duck (or Gilbert Gottfried)
3.) John Lackey's wife
4.) My 16 year old cat
5.) Jerry Orbach (yes, he is dead)
Inning summary:
2.) The Aflac duck (or Gilbert Gottfried)
3.) John Lackey's wife
4.) My 16 year old cat
5.) Jerry Orbach (yes, he is dead)
Inning summary:
| - R. Willits at designated hitter |
| - B. Fuentes relieved F. Rodney |
| - G. Kapler struck out swinging |
| - W. Aybar homered to deep left |
| - J. Bartlett singled to right center |
| - C. Crawford flied out to shallow right |
| - B. Zobrist walked, J. Bartlett to second |
| - E. Longoria doubled to left center, J. Bartlett and B. Zobrist scored |
| - C. Pena hit by pitch |
| - E. Longoria to third, C. Pena to second on wild pitch |
| - J. Jaso lined out to right center |
| - End of Inning (3 Runs, 3 Hits, 0 Errors) And thus, Fuentes surrenders a 4-1 lead in the ninth. This team will not win 1-run games as they usually do while Fuentes is still on the roster. |
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Fenway failure
With my graduation from Northeastern approaching at an alarming pace, my visit to Fenway Park last night to watch the Angels was likely my last trek to that godforsaken park for a major league baseball game. Aside from the potholed concourse with no view of the field, the $8.50 beer, the minuscule $5.00 hot dogs, and the hordes of unwashed Connecticutians, watching the Angels in Fenway Park has rarely been a positive experience. This game was no different, with the Angels failing to capitalize on a 2nd and 3rd, 1 out situation in the eighth inning of a tie game, followed by a miserable Juan Rivera drop of a routine fly ball to give the Red Sox the go-ahead runs.
Meanwhile, of course, Boston "fans" were threatening myself and the rest of the small Angels contingent with violence and general hooliganism. Well after the Angels had lost and the crowd was attempting to file out of the minuscule bleacher stairway, I was talking with a guy who seemed civil, yet ten seconds later told me he was "going to kick my ass." I left the field and found a shockingly large pool of congealing blood next to the famous Ted Williams statue. As the Doghouse says in Merrimack's arena, "this place sucks!"
As far as the game was concerned, the game turned on two plays: Abreu's double play groundout in the top of the 8th, and Rivera's inability to catch a popup in the bottom of the inning. Abreu, in my mind, needed to be able to hit the ball in the air, both for the sake of the game and as a professional baseball player. How many warning track flies does he produce in a season? Lengthen your swing and accept a strikeout over a ground ball. Rivera, on the other hand, earned praise for his defense last season. Don't believe it. He ran 30 yards to move 15 linear yards, slowed down before he needed to, and watched a ball hi the ground in front of him and bounce off the wall. This is unacceptable, and for all of Reggie Willits' faults, he would've made that catch.
I would write about Kevin Jepsen's "relief" effort, but talking about anyone who walks three batters in an inning is wasting words.
It is important to remember that it's May. The Angels, despite a 5-game losing streak (soon to be 6, with Lackey facing Piniero tonight), are only 2.5 (maybe 3.5) games out of first in the AL West with over 130 games remaining.
Finally, I take comfort in the Lakers. Despite my massively reduced interest in the NBA this season, mostly because the NBA sucks, I still love the Lakers for the worry-free entertainment they bring. Rarely am I concerned about them losing a game, I have faith that one of Bryant or Gasol will show up in any given game, usually both, and the regular season remains irrelevant for the team. It's a calming sense of security.
When does hockey season start?
Meanwhile, of course, Boston "fans" were threatening myself and the rest of the small Angels contingent with violence and general hooliganism. Well after the Angels had lost and the crowd was attempting to file out of the minuscule bleacher stairway, I was talking with a guy who seemed civil, yet ten seconds later told me he was "going to kick my ass." I left the field and found a shockingly large pool of congealing blood next to the famous Ted Williams statue. As the Doghouse says in Merrimack's arena, "this place sucks!"
As far as the game was concerned, the game turned on two plays: Abreu's double play groundout in the top of the 8th, and Rivera's inability to catch a popup in the bottom of the inning. Abreu, in my mind, needed to be able to hit the ball in the air, both for the sake of the game and as a professional baseball player. How many warning track flies does he produce in a season? Lengthen your swing and accept a strikeout over a ground ball. Rivera, on the other hand, earned praise for his defense last season. Don't believe it. He ran 30 yards to move 15 linear yards, slowed down before he needed to, and watched a ball hi the ground in front of him and bounce off the wall. This is unacceptable, and for all of Reggie Willits' faults, he would've made that catch.
I would write about Kevin Jepsen's "relief" effort, but talking about anyone who walks three batters in an inning is wasting words.
It is important to remember that it's May. The Angels, despite a 5-game losing streak (soon to be 6, with Lackey facing Piniero tonight), are only 2.5 (maybe 3.5) games out of first in the AL West with over 130 games remaining.
Finally, I take comfort in the Lakers. Despite my massively reduced interest in the NBA this season, mostly because the NBA sucks, I still love the Lakers for the worry-free entertainment they bring. Rarely am I concerned about them losing a game, I have faith that one of Bryant or Gasol will show up in any given game, usually both, and the regular season remains irrelevant for the team. It's a calming sense of security.
When does hockey season start?
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